After decades of development, China's auto industry has ushered in the "top-level" design and planning. On April 25, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Science and Technology jointly issued the "Mid-term and Long-term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning"), aiming at implementing the strategy of building a powerful manufacturing country and promoting the building of a powerful automobile country. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the core of "Planning" is to make China's brand cars bigger and stronger, and to cultivate enterprise groups with international competitiveness.
At the same time, the "planning" proposed that by 2020, the annual production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles will reach 2 million. The data shows that in 2016, the sales of new energy vehicles in China were 507,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 53%. Although it has grown rapidly, it still failed to meet its original goal of selling 700,000 vehicles. If based on the sales volume of 570,000 units in the previous year, the annual growth rate will be 50% annually for the next four years, and the sales volume will reach 2.57 million by 2020. However, as subsidies subside, the pressure to achieve annual production and sales of 2 million vehicles is not small.
New Energy Vehicle: Annual Production and Sales of 2 Million Vehicles after 3 Years
Under the boost of many preferential policies, new energy vehicles have become a new force in the domestic automobile market. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, domestic sales of new energy vehicles last year were 507,000 vehicles, an increase of 53% year-on-year. In March this year, domestic new energy vehicles still maintained high growth with sales of 31,100 vehicles. "Planning" proposes that by 2020, the annual domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million.
At the same time, with the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, their respective major brand automakers also achieved high growth. Last year, the sales of new energy vehicles from BAIC, GAC, and SAIC's three major car companies maintained a high growth momentum. Although the launch of many new energy vehicles has enabled auto makers to rapidly increase sales volume in recent years, the motor, electronic control and battery core technologies known as “three powers†​​technology have still become the key for independent auto companies to break through. . In order to accelerate the research, development, and industrialization of new energy vehicle technologies, the "Planning" pointed out that the use of corporate investment, social capital, and national science and technology plans (special projects, funds, etc.) shall be used as an overall plan to organize collaborative research among enterprises, universities, and research institutes, focusing on power batteries. It deploys tasks with six innovation chains, including battery management system, motor drive and power electronics assembly, electric vehicle intelligent technology, fuel cell power system, plug-in/extended hybrid power system and pure electric power system.
In order to enhance the R&D capability of autonomous batteries and upgrade the core technologies of new energy vehicles, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had previously released the “catalogue of automobile power battery industry regulatory standards†enterprise directory. The car companies used the batteries produced by domestic companies that entered the catalogue to obtain subsidies for new energy vehicles and get rid of the The dependence of foreign companies on batteries. At the same time, car companies themselves are constantly adding technology to the “three powers†​​technology. New energy car companies such as BYD and BAIC New Energy already have their own “three powers†​​core technologies and are used in their respective models.
At present, the prices of new energy vehicles are generally higher and rely on government subsidies to reduce the final selling price. For new energy vehicles, battery prices account for more than 50% of the total vehicle price. In order to reduce the battery cost of new energy vehicles, the “planning†requires that the power battery cell specific energy reach 300 Wh/kg or more by 2020, and strives to achieve 350 Wh/kg, and the system specific energy should strive to reach 260 Wh/kg and cost. Drop to 1 yuan/watt hour below. The data shows that last year, the power battery cell energy density reached 220 Wh/kg and the price was 1.5 yuan/Wh. Compared with 2012, the energy density increased by 1.7 times and the price has dropped by 60%.
In addition, in the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, the “planning†pointed out that the proportion of new energy vehicles in the public service sector should be gradually increased, and the application scale of new energy vehicles in the private sector should be expanded. According to forecasts, the time-shared leasing market for domestic new energy vehicles targeting public transport is about 20 billion yuan. Currently, many companies including SAIC, Changan Automobile, and SAIC Group have seized the market in this area. In the area of ​​private new energy vehicles, taking Beijing as an example, the allocation of new energy vehicles has increased continuously. At present, the number of private new energy vehicles has increased to 51,000. In the sales of new energy vehicles, in order to reduce the purchase cost of new energy vehicles, the EC180 launched by BAIC New Energy will start at only RMB 49,800.
Yan Jinghui, an expert in the automotive industry, said that China's auto industry has experienced decades of development, and it has experienced the stage of introducing foreign capital through the “market†for “technology†in the traditional fuel vehicle sector. It also has advantages for Chinese auto companies. In the field of new energy vehicles, Chinese automakers and foreign automakers are on the same starting line. Through top-level planning and designing new energy vehicle development routes, Chinese automakers can shorten international gaps as soon as possible.
Intelligent network car: Overtaking based on demand curve
While developing new energy vehicles, intelligence and the Internet are undoubtedly two other hot words for the automotive industry. Many autonomous car companies are investing more in intelligent autopilot and the Internet in order to achieve a curve overtaking in emerging areas.
The "planning" proposes that in the future we should increase the key technologies of intelligent networked vehicles, promote the ubiquitous interconnection of smart vehicles and the surrounding environment and facilities, and under the premise of ensuring security, realize resource integration and open data sharing, and promote broadband network infrastructure. Construction and multi-industry joint construction of intelligent network-linked automotive big data interactive platform.
In the field of smart driving, in 2015, Baidu announced that it will implement "three-year commercial and five-year volume production" for unmanned vehicles. It recently announced that it will open Apollo, an automatic driving software platform, to partners in the automotive industry and autonomous driving fields. Apollo) to help them build their own autopilot system. In addition to Internet companies, traditional car companies are also constantly making efforts in intelligent automatic driving and network connection. Last year, the Changan self-driving car has been tested on the road; Beijing Auto's self-driving car was also unveiled at the Beijing Auto Show last year; Geely said it will launch Volvo's auto-manufacturing production car in 2-3 years; SAIC will realize full-automated driving in the next decade; Great Wall The auto will launch a freeway autonomous vehicle at the end of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period.
In addition, the "planning" also pointed out that the development of intelligent networking car demonstration. A test evaluation system was introduced to promote the application of intelligent network connected vehicles in stages and steps, and steadily expand the scope of the pilot. It is understood that at present Shanghai has established a closed test area of ​​the National Intelligent Network Alliance Automotive (Shanghai) Pilot Demonstration Zone. The test area can simulate 100 complex road conditions for automated vehicle testing. The industry believes that with the opening of the closed test area, it will help promote the development of domestic auto-driving regulations in response to China’s road conditions.
Energy-saving cars: diversified energy development
As the main force for the promotion of new energy vehicles in China, pure electric vehicles have always been the main sales force of new energy vehicles in China due to preferential policies and the relatively simple body structure. Sales ratio of hybrid vehicles and other energy-saving vehicles is not large. According to the data, in the 507,000 new energy sales last year, although the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 79,000 units, which was a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, it still accounted for a small proportion of the total sales of new energy vehicles.
Prior to this, Premier Li Keqiang emphasized that accelerating the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles is an urgent task to promote the transformation and upgrading of the auto industry and to seize the commanding heights of international competition, and also to promote green development. An important measure to cultivate new economic growth points. "Planning" also regards energy-saving vehicles as an important part of the long-term development of the automotive industry, and proposes the promotion of advanced fuel vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and alternative fuel vehicle R&D.
Yan Jinghui believes that energy-saving cars represented by plug-in hybrid vehicles, due to their complex structure compared with pure electric vehicles, can promote the investment of independent brand car companies in technology research and development and master the core technology of the enterprise industry. At the same time, energy-saving cars are also an important part of the domestic car companies to achieve fuel consumption restrictions.
The "Made in China 2025" issued by the State Council in 2015 is considered to be the "Sword of Damocles" suspended by domestic car manufacturers. The document proposes that by 2020, domestic passenger cars (including new energy use) The overall fuel consumption of the new car will drop to 5 litres/hundred kilometers, and will drop to 4 liters/hundred kilometers in 2025. For the domestic automobile enterprises, simply relying on the improvement of traditional fuel engines cannot achieve the target of fuel consumption limit, and must rely on new energy vehicles and energy-saving vehicles to reduce overall fuel consumption.
The general manager of SAIC General Motors Wang Yongqing said: “From the point of view of subsidies, restrictions, licenses and other policies in domestic first-tier cities, pure electric vehicles are one of the trends in the future. However, hybrid and other energy-saving automotive technologies are equally important, and by 2025, domestic vehicles It is not enough to rely on new energy vehicles to achieve 4 litres/hundred kilometers. Energy-saving cars and pure electric vehicles must go hand in hand."
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