LED lighting market drivers: from technology to cost

From technology to cost

LED is widely regarded as the ideal choice for the fourth generation of light source because of its excellent performance. LED light source is superior to traditional light sources such as incandescent lamp and fluorescent lamp in terms of luminous efficiency, service life, response time and environmental protection. The luminous efficiency of LEDs has increased year by year and has reached the demand for general lighting applications.

According to the latest published results of CREE in 2010, the current white LED light efficiency of the laboratory reaches 200lm/w, the commercial chip reaches 160lm/w, and it plans to mass produce 200lm/w LED in 2013. The LED lighting package module The luminous efficiency is 160lm/w, and the loss of light from the light source to the luminaire is about 50%. The light output of the luminaire reaches 80lm/w, which still exceeds the luminous efficiency of the current fluorescent lamp 60-80lm/w, and far exceeds the incandescent lamp 10 -15lm/w efficiency.

Analysis: Drivers in the LED lighting market

In terms of light efficiency, LED lighting has reached the standard of replacing traditional light sources. At present, commercialized products have already demonstrated the advantages of LEDs in light efficiency. For example, LED bulbs adopt screw-type base design, which can be directly used to replace traditional incandescent bulbs, without changing existing lamp holders and lines, according to bayonet size and bulbs. Divided into E26 and E17 models, 4W LED bulbs can replace 25W incandescent bulbs, 6W LED bulbs can replace 40W incandescent bulbs, and 10W LED bulbs can replace 60W incandescent bulbs.

Technically, the LED light efficiency has reached the requirement of replacing the traditional light source. At present, the main factor restricting the rapid popularization of LED lighting is its high cost. In the future, the main direction of LED lighting development should not be the technical upgrade represented by lm/w, but the cost reduction represented by $/lm.

In addition to technology and cost, the positive attitudes of governments and governments in energy conservation and emission reduction, and the suspension and disabling of incandescent products are important factors influencing the replacement of LED lighting. Many developed countries plan to stop manufacturing and ban the use of incandescent light bulbs around 2012. LEDs are an ideal choice for incandescent lamp replacement because of their advantages in energy saving, emission reduction and environmental protection. Once the technology and cost are appropriate, they are expected to receive policies from governments. Strong support.

LED lighting industry investment opportunity

By analyzing the LED-to-fluorescent lamp (CCFL) replacement process in the field of TV backlights, it can be found that the price difference between LED and CCFL backlight is the fastest, and the LED backlight penetration rate rises rapidly. LED lighting replaces traditional fluorescent and incandescent lighting to repeat this process.

In the process of rapid decline in the price difference between LED lighting products and traditional lighting products, LED lighting penetration rate will rise rapidly. In the LED industry, there is a Haitz law proposed by Agilent Roland Haitz, which is considered to be the Moore's Law of the LED industry. Since the commercialization of LEDs, the cost per lumen ($/lm) has dropped by about 20% per year, and from recent data, the brightness increase and cost reduction have accelerated.

According to the US Department of Energy's forecast, the lumen cost of white LED packaging will drop from 25$/klm in 2009 to 2$/klm in 2015, and the average annual cost will drop by more than 30%, while the average annual cost from 2010 to 2012. The decline is close to 40%. We believe that 2011-2012 will be the fastest time period for the difference between LED and traditional lighting, and LED lighting penetration will increase by leaps and bounds during this period. According to our calculations, the cost of LED lighting will be reduced to twice that of fluorescent lamps by around $/lm in 2012. If the LED is about 2.5 times longer than the fluorescent lamp, it will make LED lighting around 2012. The total cost is ahead of fluorescent lighting.

Therefore, we believe that the large-scale replacement of LED lighting will be launched in late 2011 and early 2012, and 2011-2012 will be an important investment point for the LED lighting industry.

At present, traditional lighting includes fluorescent lamps, incandescent lamps, halogen lamps, HID, which account for 36%, 23%, 16%, and 13% of general lighting revenue. With the ban of incandescent lamps in various countries, the replacement of fluorescent lamps with incandescent lamps, LED The replacement of the lamp for incandescent and fluorescent lamps will be synchronized. The commercial/industrial sector is more active in the use of energy-efficient lighting products due to the fact that commercial/industrial companies are more sensitive to the cost of electricity and the government is increasingly demanding energy-saving and emission-reduction.

This process will also be repeated in the replacement of LED light sources. The replacement of LED lighting products first occurs in the commercial/industrial field, and after good demonstration, it is gradually popularized into the field of household lighting.