Emerging industries are the new engines that will lead the economy in the future. China will also focus on this area and strive to increase its competitiveness in the global industrial chain. However, in the actual development process, some emerging industries quickly exposed the various drawbacks of the old model, lack of scientific planning, lack of key technologies, weak market endogenous configuration capabilities, and low-level redundant construction.
In order to explore the reasons behind this, and avoid emerging industries from “walking the old road with new shoesâ€, China’s emerging industries have gained an international perspective of competition. This newspaper selected a sample of photovoltaic industry and launched a series of “Perspectives on the development of photovoltaic industryâ€. While rethinking the crisis of the photovoltaic industry development model at the present stage, we will explore new competition models to adapt to the new energy industry's international competition. This series of reports will be issued in three periodicals. The first article will be published today. Please pay attention to the readers.
A high cross star means short-term change disk? ST plate hype or ebb tide chemical stocks into the main capital safe harbor heavy beer open shareholders meeting the vaccine incident to face torture rice seed business to meet the development opportunity Guangzhou pharmaceutical restructuring or renamed Wong Lo Kat to cut interest rates is a major trend in the stock market or greet the good [weibo] empty warehouse master so evaluate The current market [share bar] Ye Rongtian: stuck in the stealing music into 2012, the photovoltaic concept stocks that had given investors unlimited imagination still can not change the fate of a sharp decline in performance. As of January 31st, PV concept stocks including Jiangsu Sunshine, Sunflower (300220, stocks), Topsun Energy (002218, stocks) and others have successively issued 2011 performance “changing face†notices, among which, Toriichi New The loss can be announced or up to 250.62%. At the same time, some "silicon-related" listed companies have tried to overcome difficulties by stopping maintenance, selling assets, and so on.
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association’s Silicon Industry Branch revealed to the “Economic Information Daily†reporter that at the end of November last year, 80% of the polysilicon enterprises had stopped production. Affected by the dual factors of output growth and limited downstream demand, the price of polysilicon was unlikely to turn for the better in 2012, and the slowdown in demand growth was a foregone conclusion.
More than a kilogram from the quagmire, thanks to US$56. Recently, Jiangsu Sunshine released its pre-reduction announcement last year, saying that its net profit last year dropped more than 80% from the same period of last year. According to the announcement, in the report period, due to various factors such as the appreciation of the renminbi, rising labor costs, rising coal prices and a sharp drop in the polysilicon market price since the second half of 2011, the company’s 2011 net profit dropped significantly. According to reports, Jiangsu Sun's polysilicon production costs about 600,000 yuan / ton, which is $ 87.85 / kg. Currently, the price of polysilicon is less than 32 US dollars/kilogram. Jiangsu Solar loses 56 US dollars per kilogram of polysilicon.
In fact, Jiangsu Sunshine was originally the world's largest manufacturer of woolen fabrics, attracted by polysilicon projects with a profit of 250% in 2007, and invested RMB 1.5 billion on August 28, 2007 to join the “polysilicon†club. This is one of the true portraits of photovoltaic concept stocks that have brought unlimited imagination to investors.
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association’s silicon branch report, with the introduction of the Italian subsidy policy in March last year and the reduction in demand in European countries, the global photovoltaic market has turned sharply, and downstream products have plummeted, resulting in a rapid decline in polysilicon prices. At the end of June last year, the price of polysilicon fell from 700,000 yuan/ton in early April to 400,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 40%. In the second half of the year, due to the worsening debt crisis in Europe, European and American banks' lending standards tightened, and European and American solar companies closed down one after another. The photovoltaic market environment further deteriorated. As downstream users reduced their purchases, polysilicon prices continued to decline, and fell below in October last year. Since the financial crisis, the minimum value of 250,000 yuan / ton, and continuously refreshed historical lows. According to statistics, the average polysilicon price last year was 460,000 yuan/ton, down 14.8% year-on-year.
Nowadays, a group of listed companies involved in "silicon" have changed from "silicon is king" to "talking about the color change of silicon".
As of January 31, 2012, various A shares of photovoltaic concept stocks have issued 2011 performance forecast. Except for Jiangsu Sunshine, the parent company of Tianwei Baohua also expects its profit to drop by more than 90%, sunflower is expected to drop its profit by 90%, and its profit will drop by 90%. Chao Sun Sun (002506, Shares) It is expected that earnings will fall by 65%, and Topsun will announce a loss of 250.62%.
It is not without warning that most of the companies on the full-stop production and access list have stopped such a bleak outcome on the production line. As early as September of last year, half of the country’s 40-plus polysilicon enterprises have already stopped all production lines. The China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association’s Silicon Division once predicted that by the end of November last year, 90% of polysilicon enterprises in China will enter the state of production suspension. Many listed companies have just announced their expansion plans. For example, TBEA (600089) announced that it will invest 7.2 billion yuan in the construction of a polysilicon project with a scale of 12,000 tons in Xinjiang; Tianwei Change will issue 1.6 billion yuan in corporate bonds to promote new energy sources in one of the two main industries. business development. Analysts in the industry said that this kind of aggressive expansion at the time made it difficult for investors and even industry insiders to understand.
At the critical time of the end of 2011, the government's access threshold for the polysilicon industry was again generated. On December 14, 2011, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of polysilicon industry access companies, hoping to use the access list as an opportunity to increase capital support for leading enterprises, and at the same time promote the market access mechanism of the photovoltaic industry chain to promote Industry deep integration.
The reporter checked public information of listed companies and found that on November 11th, 2011, Tianwei Baohuan announced that its subsidiary Tianwei Sichuan Silicon Co., Ltd. had recently stopped production for temporary overhaul. The subsidiary is owned by Tianwei Baoji, Qijiang Hydropower (600131, stocks) and Sichuan Investment Energy (600674, stocks) (custodian) with 51%, 14% and 35% respectively. In addition, polysilicon companies such as Xinguang Silicon and LeTV Tianwei have also ceased production. According to statistics from reporters, as of the end of last year, except for some local state-owned enterprises such as Luoyang Silicon, Ningxia Power, and other local state-owned enterprises that had not announced production shutdowns, the polysilicon projects of other companies were all in different degrees of production shutdown. At this point, the fact that the country's polysilicon enterprises have basically stopped production completely is a foregone conclusion. The huge performance of the face of changes in the stock price caused the continuous decline, so that investors suffered huge losses.
Demand is sluggish. It is expected that this year's growth rate will slow down by 30%. Most organizations interviewed by the "Economic Information Daily" believe that 2012 is the real test of the global photovoltaic market.
China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch statistics show that as of December 31, 2011, China's Siemens polysilicon has built a total production capacity of 134,000 tons / year, an increase of 54.2%, while output is 73,000 tons, an increase of 72.4 %. Although most of China’s polysilicon plant shutdowns after November last year had a certain impact on output in the fourth quarter, Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon, Luoyang Zhongsi, LDK Solar, Asia Silicon and other major manufacturers continued their production at a normal pace. Supporting 70% of domestic supply, the total production in 2011 still reached the forecast value at the beginning of the year. If you count the physical method and silane polysilicon, the total domestic polysilicon production may be close to 77,000 tons.
The China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association's silicon branch report believes that in addition to the existing 134,000-ton/year built Siemens capacity, China still has 96,000 tons/year of capacity under construction. It is conservatively estimated that China's polysilicon production capacity will reach 170,000 by the end of 2012. Tons/year, the output is 80,000 to 90,000 tons. If the current suspension of production only lasts until around the first quarter of this year, the national polysilicon production is likely to climb to more than 100,000 tons. This is supply.
From the demand point of view, the above report shows that although the exact output of the current solar cell has not yet been released, according to projections, China's solar cell production in 2011 was approximately 18GW to 20GW, an increase of 28.6% to 41.8% compared to 14.1GW in 2010. Taking the current average output of 1GW battery to consume 6,500 tons of polysilicon, the consumption of polysilicon in China in 2011 was 117,000 tons to 130,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 57.6%. As of the end of December 2011, China's polysilicon manufacturers had an inventory of 4,000 tons, a slight decrease from the 5,000 tons at the end of the third quarter. The China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association’s Silicon Division expects that due to the fact that there are still about 8 GW of solar cell inventory in the downstream market, and that domestic first-line cell and module manufacturers have basically reached the expansion target, the growth rate of polysilicon consumption will slow down to 2012. About 30%.
According to feedback from companies, despite the fact that domestic polysilicon companies started after the holidays are still less than 20%, due to the rapid decline in polysilicon prices in the second half of 2011, the price of trichlorosilane has slipped from 6,500 yuan/ton in the peak period to 6,500 yuan. RMB/ton to RMB 7,000/ton, which made the cost of polysilicon raw materials drop by 35,000 yuan/ton to 45,000 yuan/ton, coupled with the decline in steam cost and personnel welfare of many companies, and the current total cost of most polysilicon enterprises has fallen year-on-year. 50,000 yuan/ton to 60,000 yuan/ton, up to 270,000 yuan/ton to 290,000 yuan/ton. Many companies said that if the market price can rise to 300,000 yuan / ton or more will resume production.
The China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association’s Silicon Division believes that the shutdown of polysilicon will not last long. However, due to the dual factors of production growth and limited downstream demand, global polysilicon prices will hardly increase significantly in 2012. The annual average price is expected to be around US$40/kg to US$50/kg.
In order to explore the reasons behind this, and avoid emerging industries from “walking the old road with new shoesâ€, China’s emerging industries have gained an international perspective of competition. This newspaper selected a sample of photovoltaic industry and launched a series of “Perspectives on the development of photovoltaic industryâ€. While rethinking the crisis of the photovoltaic industry development model at the present stage, we will explore new competition models to adapt to the new energy industry's international competition. This series of reports will be issued in three periodicals. The first article will be published today. Please pay attention to the readers.
A high cross star means short-term change disk? ST plate hype or ebb tide chemical stocks into the main capital safe harbor heavy beer open shareholders meeting the vaccine incident to face torture rice seed business to meet the development opportunity Guangzhou pharmaceutical restructuring or renamed Wong Lo Kat to cut interest rates is a major trend in the stock market or greet the good [weibo] empty warehouse master so evaluate The current market [share bar] Ye Rongtian: stuck in the stealing music into 2012, the photovoltaic concept stocks that had given investors unlimited imagination still can not change the fate of a sharp decline in performance. As of January 31st, PV concept stocks including Jiangsu Sunshine, Sunflower (300220, stocks), Topsun Energy (002218, stocks) and others have successively issued 2011 performance “changing face†notices, among which, Toriichi New The loss can be announced or up to 250.62%. At the same time, some "silicon-related" listed companies have tried to overcome difficulties by stopping maintenance, selling assets, and so on.
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association’s Silicon Industry Branch revealed to the “Economic Information Daily†reporter that at the end of November last year, 80% of the polysilicon enterprises had stopped production. Affected by the dual factors of output growth and limited downstream demand, the price of polysilicon was unlikely to turn for the better in 2012, and the slowdown in demand growth was a foregone conclusion.
More than a kilogram from the quagmire, thanks to US$56. Recently, Jiangsu Sunshine released its pre-reduction announcement last year, saying that its net profit last year dropped more than 80% from the same period of last year. According to the announcement, in the report period, due to various factors such as the appreciation of the renminbi, rising labor costs, rising coal prices and a sharp drop in the polysilicon market price since the second half of 2011, the company’s 2011 net profit dropped significantly. According to reports, Jiangsu Sun's polysilicon production costs about 600,000 yuan / ton, which is $ 87.85 / kg. Currently, the price of polysilicon is less than 32 US dollars/kilogram. Jiangsu Solar loses 56 US dollars per kilogram of polysilicon.
In fact, Jiangsu Sunshine was originally the world's largest manufacturer of woolen fabrics, attracted by polysilicon projects with a profit of 250% in 2007, and invested RMB 1.5 billion on August 28, 2007 to join the “polysilicon†club. This is one of the true portraits of photovoltaic concept stocks that have brought unlimited imagination to investors.
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association’s silicon branch report, with the introduction of the Italian subsidy policy in March last year and the reduction in demand in European countries, the global photovoltaic market has turned sharply, and downstream products have plummeted, resulting in a rapid decline in polysilicon prices. At the end of June last year, the price of polysilicon fell from 700,000 yuan/ton in early April to 400,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 40%. In the second half of the year, due to the worsening debt crisis in Europe, European and American banks' lending standards tightened, and European and American solar companies closed down one after another. The photovoltaic market environment further deteriorated. As downstream users reduced their purchases, polysilicon prices continued to decline, and fell below in October last year. Since the financial crisis, the minimum value of 250,000 yuan / ton, and continuously refreshed historical lows. According to statistics, the average polysilicon price last year was 460,000 yuan/ton, down 14.8% year-on-year.
Nowadays, a group of listed companies involved in "silicon" have changed from "silicon is king" to "talking about the color change of silicon".
As of January 31, 2012, various A shares of photovoltaic concept stocks have issued 2011 performance forecast. Except for Jiangsu Sunshine, the parent company of Tianwei Baohua also expects its profit to drop by more than 90%, sunflower is expected to drop its profit by 90%, and its profit will drop by 90%. Chao Sun Sun (002506, Shares) It is expected that earnings will fall by 65%, and Topsun will announce a loss of 250.62%.
It is not without warning that most of the companies on the full-stop production and access list have stopped such a bleak outcome on the production line. As early as September of last year, half of the country’s 40-plus polysilicon enterprises have already stopped all production lines. The China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association’s Silicon Division once predicted that by the end of November last year, 90% of polysilicon enterprises in China will enter the state of production suspension. Many listed companies have just announced their expansion plans. For example, TBEA (600089) announced that it will invest 7.2 billion yuan in the construction of a polysilicon project with a scale of 12,000 tons in Xinjiang; Tianwei Change will issue 1.6 billion yuan in corporate bonds to promote new energy sources in one of the two main industries. business development. Analysts in the industry said that this kind of aggressive expansion at the time made it difficult for investors and even industry insiders to understand.
At the critical time of the end of 2011, the government's access threshold for the polysilicon industry was again generated. On December 14, 2011, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of polysilicon industry access companies, hoping to use the access list as an opportunity to increase capital support for leading enterprises, and at the same time promote the market access mechanism of the photovoltaic industry chain to promote Industry deep integration.
The reporter checked public information of listed companies and found that on November 11th, 2011, Tianwei Baohuan announced that its subsidiary Tianwei Sichuan Silicon Co., Ltd. had recently stopped production for temporary overhaul. The subsidiary is owned by Tianwei Baoji, Qijiang Hydropower (600131, stocks) and Sichuan Investment Energy (600674, stocks) (custodian) with 51%, 14% and 35% respectively. In addition, polysilicon companies such as Xinguang Silicon and LeTV Tianwei have also ceased production. According to statistics from reporters, as of the end of last year, except for some local state-owned enterprises such as Luoyang Silicon, Ningxia Power, and other local state-owned enterprises that had not announced production shutdowns, the polysilicon projects of other companies were all in different degrees of production shutdown. At this point, the fact that the country's polysilicon enterprises have basically stopped production completely is a foregone conclusion. The huge performance of the face of changes in the stock price caused the continuous decline, so that investors suffered huge losses.
Demand is sluggish. It is expected that this year's growth rate will slow down by 30%. Most organizations interviewed by the "Economic Information Daily" believe that 2012 is the real test of the global photovoltaic market.
China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch statistics show that as of December 31, 2011, China's Siemens polysilicon has built a total production capacity of 134,000 tons / year, an increase of 54.2%, while output is 73,000 tons, an increase of 72.4 %. Although most of China’s polysilicon plant shutdowns after November last year had a certain impact on output in the fourth quarter, Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon, Luoyang Zhongsi, LDK Solar, Asia Silicon and other major manufacturers continued their production at a normal pace. Supporting 70% of domestic supply, the total production in 2011 still reached the forecast value at the beginning of the year. If you count the physical method and silane polysilicon, the total domestic polysilicon production may be close to 77,000 tons.
The China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association's silicon branch report believes that in addition to the existing 134,000-ton/year built Siemens capacity, China still has 96,000 tons/year of capacity under construction. It is conservatively estimated that China's polysilicon production capacity will reach 170,000 by the end of 2012. Tons/year, the output is 80,000 to 90,000 tons. If the current suspension of production only lasts until around the first quarter of this year, the national polysilicon production is likely to climb to more than 100,000 tons. This is supply.
From the demand point of view, the above report shows that although the exact output of the current solar cell has not yet been released, according to projections, China's solar cell production in 2011 was approximately 18GW to 20GW, an increase of 28.6% to 41.8% compared to 14.1GW in 2010. Taking the current average output of 1GW battery to consume 6,500 tons of polysilicon, the consumption of polysilicon in China in 2011 was 117,000 tons to 130,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 57.6%. As of the end of December 2011, China's polysilicon manufacturers had an inventory of 4,000 tons, a slight decrease from the 5,000 tons at the end of the third quarter. The China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association’s Silicon Division expects that due to the fact that there are still about 8 GW of solar cell inventory in the downstream market, and that domestic first-line cell and module manufacturers have basically reached the expansion target, the growth rate of polysilicon consumption will slow down to 2012. About 30%.
According to feedback from companies, despite the fact that domestic polysilicon companies started after the holidays are still less than 20%, due to the rapid decline in polysilicon prices in the second half of 2011, the price of trichlorosilane has slipped from 6,500 yuan/ton in the peak period to 6,500 yuan. RMB/ton to RMB 7,000/ton, which made the cost of polysilicon raw materials drop by 35,000 yuan/ton to 45,000 yuan/ton, coupled with the decline in steam cost and personnel welfare of many companies, and the current total cost of most polysilicon enterprises has fallen year-on-year. 50,000 yuan/ton to 60,000 yuan/ton, up to 270,000 yuan/ton to 290,000 yuan/ton. Many companies said that if the market price can rise to 300,000 yuan / ton or more will resume production.
The China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association’s Silicon Division believes that the shutdown of polysilicon will not last long. However, due to the dual factors of production growth and limited downstream demand, global polysilicon prices will hardly increase significantly in 2012. The annual average price is expected to be around US$40/kg to US$50/kg.
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