According to a report released by professional research firm IDC, global semiconductor revenue estimates for this year and next year and 2014 are $274 billion, $295 billion and $344 billion, respectively. The average annual compound growth rate in 2009-2014 was 8.8%.
IDC pointed out that this year's strong double-digit growth in PC revenues (up 35% from last year) was mainly driven by demand for mobile computer applications; coupled with a significant increase in corporate spending in 2011-2012, the computer industry will A stable annual compound growth rate of 12.2% was achieved during 2009-2014.
The double-digit revenue growth of mobile devices such as smart phones has also led to a record high of $59.3 billion in revenue for the wireless communications industry this year. However, as the growth in the amount of memory required by mobile phones has stabilized and the pricing pressure has increased, the growth rate in the next two years will slow down to a high single digit level.
Semiconductor revenues in the industrial, military, aerospace and automotive industries are expected to increase by more than 20% this year, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.2% in five years, mainly due to alternative energy, LED lighting and automotive use. Semiconductors are increasing.
In the consumer industry, this year's growth rate is 5.8%, which will be lower in the next few years. While digital TV and multimedia tablets are expected to grow strongly, other device applications such as PMPFlash will experience a significant decline.
As for the memory sector, IDC estimates that this year's memory revenue will reach $66.7 billion, an annual growth rate of more than 52%, mainly due to increased demand for mobile computers, small notebooks, multimedia tablets and smart phones. However, the shift in technology and the increase in price pressures and the increase in output will result in a flat or small decline in revenue for the next two years.
In terms of regions, the Asia Pacific region continues to expand its share of global semiconductor revenues, and IDC estimates that it will reach 45% by 2014.
IDC said that global semiconductors showed a 9% recession last year, and now the order-to-bill ratio has returned to normal from the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year. IDC pointed out that the industry underestimated the impact of the restructuring of the initial recession on the supply chain, so the orders for demand and rebuilding stocks later exceeded supply until now. IDC estimates that seasonal demand will remain stable in the second half of this year, and future demand will be the key to sustaining the current cycle.
IDV Semiconductor Research Manager MaliVenkatesan believes that the recovery pattern of the semiconductor market this year is similar to that of 2004; however, he pointed out that the global economic recovery since the second half of last year was due to the euro sovereign bond crisis, the high unemployment rate in the US, and low consumer confidence. The BRIC assets have a general economic problem such as a bubble and there is a risk of slowing down in the second half of the year. Even so, products such as smart phones, mobile computers, multimedia tablets and automotive electronics will grow strongly this year and next.
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