The downturn in the virtual reality market is easing, but the progress of AR glasses is still quite slow. However, there are boosts from giants such as Apple, Google, and Ali, which can predict a large-scale surge in AR's future market.
Starbucks selected Shanghai Baking Workshop to open, the world's largest Starbucks store is also a new retail test site jointly built by Starbucks and Ali: After consumers pay with Alipay scan code, they can watch Starbucks coffee through the mobile phone Taobao "sweep" function. The whole process of baking, production and cooking, while using AR technology, can intuitively experience every brewing detail in the 2700 square meter workshop.
Ali Xue, head of Ali AILabs, said that this collaboration is the first large-scale commercial application in the AR indoor large-scale object recognition technology. The AR solution was jointly developed by Alibaba's Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and Starbucks. It is expected to be applied to the remaining 3,000 stores in Starbucks in the future, and will be exported to overseas stores.
The day before, AR CEO enthusiastic Apple CEO Cook visited the “Cloud Classroom†of Luwan First Central Elementary School and the heroes of the game company in Shanghai. The ARKit application appeared on the paper-cut of the Shanghai Elementary School classroom. Cook showed the AR Demo for the iPhone 7 Plus.
There are indications that the giants are keen to accelerate the promotion of their AR technology. However, Cai Zhuo Shao, wearables analyst of Tuoba Industrial Research Institute, believes that these are more symbolic. The giants are sensitive to the needs of the market and consumers, and can seize the opportunity to make some resources and layout.
"Ali prefers application service development. Although Apple has software layout, it is finally cut into the market through hardware such as glasses. At present, Apple is very interested in this technology, and internal research and development, but even Apple is going to launch. AR glasses that meet consumer needs and controllable costs are also very difficult. AR popularization also needs to eliminate optical design, battery life, price, shape and other problems in hardware." Cai Zhuo Shao told reporters.
Giant advancementThe popularity of Pokemon GO has made more people know about AR. At present, many application softwares have begun to support the simple experience of AR, mainly focusing on the interactive entertainment field to bring a fresh experience.
This year is an important year for AR, and Apple, Google, and Ali have launched their own AR platforms. The industry generally believes that Apple and Google's efforts will promote the popularity of AR on mobile phones.
Domestically, Ali released the Alibaba AR open platform at the Yunqi Conference this year. Tencent opened the AR platform through QQ at the global cooperation conference in November. Baidu also launched the AR platform Dusee last year.
According to reports, in this cooperation with Starbucks, Ali has realized the fusion of deep learning and three-dimensional space sensing technology for the first time, overcoming the problems of object transparency, morphological change, surface reflection and overexposure during the recognition process, and will be accurately identified. The rate is increased to 97.3%, which greatly expands the application range of AR technology in complex environments.
In the AR investment, Ali also performed quite positively. In addition to participating in the multi-round investment of the star company Magic Leap, he also led the Israeli AR company Infinity AR and became its largest shareholder, followed by investment in Israeli AR lens manufacturer Lumus.
John Hanke, CEO of NianTIc, the development company of the AR game "Pokemon GO", said that the giant platform will become the starting point for AR to enter the mainstream.
Not yet matureAt present, even if some software services incorporate AR technology, it brings a certain fresh experience, but it still has no subversive significance. According to John Hanke, the future of AR belongs to AR glasses.
However, the progress of AR glasses is quite slow. This year, Intel closed the AR glasses brand ARcon, which is mainly for sports and industry. Although Google Glass, which has been delisted, has made a comeback, it has given up on the consumer version and turned it into a business-oriented company.
On the evening of December 5, Apple's main production supplier, Quanta, announced that it had reached a cooperation agreement with the Israeli company Lumus to mass produce AR spectacle lenses. Lumus CEO Ali Groman said the cooperation is expected to significantly reduce the price of AR lenses, thereby reducing the overall cost of future AR products. Groman also revealed that "Guangda Computer has indicated that the overall AR helmet price will be lower than the price of high-end smartphones in the future."
Cook said in October last year that there are still a series of obstacles in launching a high-quality smart glasses in the short term. He said at the time, for example, display technology is not mature enough.
Cai Zhuo Shao also analyzed that the current AR experience is still facing optical design issues, battery life issues, user experience (including product form and interaction), and ecological construction. "Specifically, as a new thing, the hardware design faces the threshold in terms of resolution, refresh rate, and picture delay. The product form must be as light and natural as ordinary glasses, and the market can accept it. In the interactive experience, you can truly liberate your hands and interact. In addition, AR technology is more than just adding fun, it does not bring qualitative changes in the experience, and needs to make a difference in functions such as navigation and shopping. ."
Quanta Computer said that in the past two years, the company has been solving related technical problems. After reaching a cooperation agreement with Lumus, AR smart glasses of less than $1,000 are no longer far away. It is assumed that AR helmets using Lumus technology will be available for sale in the next 12-18 months.
As for whether the cooperation between the two parties is related to Apple, it is still unclear. But this product may not be Apple's AR glasses, because the latest news that Apple's AR glasses will be listed in 2020.
And Cai Zhuo Shao believes that even in 2020, Apple's AR glasses may not be available. Apple's idea is to confirm that the products can bring good experience and market demand, and it is very likely that Apple will release helmet products first. More apps are on phones and tablets.
IDC predicts that VR/AR will grow slowly in the next three years and will enter a period of rapid growth in 2019 after three years of stagnation. It is expected that by 2020, the market will surge to US$162 billion.
"If you look at VR/AR every day, then his development may not be as fast as you expected. If you don't look at it for a while, you may find that it is going faster than you think." A VR hardware entrepreneur The reporter said.
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