With the rapid development of information technology, drone technology has undergone tremendous changes. From remotely piloted aircraft (RPV) to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to unmanned space surveillance (UAS), drone technology has moved to a new level. Singer, a US military adviser and robot expert, once said that the essence of robots is machines. Li Deyi, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, an expert in automation and artificial intelligence, also said that the three functions of the future car will be perception, cognition and action. The drone is the machine, and it also has the three elements of the car, so the drone is also called the air robot. What is the law of development of aerial vehicles? In the past, man-machines dominated the world. In the next step, drones will make important additions to manned aircraft. In the future, drones and manned machines will depend on each other and develop synergistically. Finally, we expect the drones to dominate the world.
The necessity of the development of small dronesThe small drone industry has recently become a boom, and many UAV start-ups such as Feifei and Yihang have received tens of millions of dollars in financing without mature products. The reason why the niche is a niche industry can enter the public's field of vision, but also benefit from the emergence of innovation in Dajiang. When domestic electronics companies are still in the labor-intensive mode of foundry and assembly, Dajiang Innovation has quietly become the absolute leader of the global small drone market. In 2014, its revenue was nearly 3 billion yuan and its market share was nearly 70%. The leading and demonstrative role of Dajiang is not strong, and there has been a boom in the development and investment of drones in China.
Applying the words of Daxie Innovation founder Wang Wei: "Human dreams of flying are born." The real development time of small drones is no more than 10 years, from mature products to now only 4 years, and 1 year ago The product is also quite rough, with no complete security and data logging equipment. The development speed of drones has greatly exceeded people's expectations, and more and more areas that have not been envisioned before have begun to appear. We are optimistic about the future development of this fast-growing industry, and will continue to pay attention to relevant investment opportunities in this field.
Policy, technology and application requirements are the three driving forces of the UAV industry. Reducing costs and focusing on practicality will be an important feature of the future development of the UAV industry. With the transformation and upgrading of the traditional industries in the country and the reform of the supply-side structure, under the background of encouraging entrepreneurial innovation, the drone industry with great market value will continue to maintain rapid growth. According to industry forecasts, the overall market size of our national drone product sales and services will reach 11.09 billion yuan in 2018, reaching 46.5 billion yuan by 2020 and 75 billion yuan by 2025.
(1) Industrial system synergy
With the gradual booming of the drone market, the UAV industry will extend from the technical fields of design, R&D and manufacturing to the management, service and security fields such as drone rental and operator training, which will further affect social production and life. On a deeper level, a new industrial chain is gradually formed. Through the establishment of sound production and manufacturing capabilities and supply chain management and quality control capabilities, enhance the high level of trust between the upstream and downstream industry chain, strengthen the market-oriented and demand-oriented market promotion, improve the sales channels and after-sales service centers, upstream and downstream enterprises. Promote each other, grow together, build a virtuous circle of industrial development, and realize the coordinated development of the civil drone industrial system. The military drone manufacturers took the opportunity of implementing the military-civilian integration development strategy and used technological advantages to enter the civilian drone market. At the same time, large-scale consumer-grade UAV companies use market advantages and technology accumulation to enter the industrial-grade market. Industrial-grade UAV companies can also use professional advantages to produce consumer-grade UAV products that meet the needs of the mass market. Through the cooperation and innovation of upstream and downstream enterprises in the UAV industry chain, cross-border integration and development, and innovative business models, thus forming a cross-industry and cross-sector industrial form, and building a new industrial system integrating manufacturing and service industries.
(2) Personalization of consumer products
The drone capital of the consumer market will be more expanded into the video and camera fields to form an immersive aerial photography experience, so that the general public can enjoy the fun of flying drones. Consumer-grade drone companies must seize market demand and user pain points, and accurately locate products, improve and upgrade technology, enhance portability, security, and ease of handling, and give drones more social and media attributes. A new application scenario, the introduction of mini-type, personalized, portable consumer-grade consumer electronics, so that consumers get an unexpected experience, so that the scale of the industry can be expanded. With the advancement of technology and the development of various applications, the development of drones will be based on the closeness of life and open source, and deeply meet the needs of consumers in tourism, life photography, navigation, nursing, sports, The ability to compete in games, entertainment, education, performances, weddings, games and even personalized socialization will be strengthened. In the future, a large number of users and equipment will form a community such as air flight circle and air sports circle to realize the practicality and culture of drones. Double leap forward.
(3) Specialization in industry application
Industrial-grade drones can only turn potential demand into a real market if they are used in many fields and diversified in performance. After being loaded with different loads, the drone can be applied to a variety of operating environments to meet the requirements of different operating environments, which can greatly improve work efficiency, save time and effort, and better accomplish the target task. U.S. FAA-approved UAVs have more than 2,000 commercial uses and the development trend is unstoppable. With the deepening of the awareness of the value of drone applications, the continuous innovation of drone technology will overturn the traditional methods of operation in many industries. Based on the efficient operation and powerful functions of industrial-grade drones, it will further promote the transformation of traditional industries to achieve industrial upgrading and upgrading. With the expansion of its application in disaster relief, police, environmental protection, climate monitoring, cargo transportation, etc., especially the use of solar drones is more abundant, the drone will show a trend of development in the whole field, drones The economic benefits and social values ​​are more prominent. Through the implementation of the "UAV+" program, it will be integrated with traditional occupations, and will be subdivided into vertical applications such as UAV emergency rescue, UAV public safety, UAV environmental protection, and drone oil inspection. Open up a new situation in the civil development of the new drone industry.
(4) R&D and upgrading intelligence
Under the trend of intelligence, consumers have increased the functional requirements of drones, and complex industrial application scenarios have put forward more technical requirements and higher security requirements for drones, and require in-depth system development, in hardware and software. , algorithms, systems, etc. build a flight safety system. The intelligent R&D of drones is continuously deepening, and the application of artificial intelligence technology in the field of unmanned systems is promoted. The UAV will integrate advanced robot technology and algorithm technology, and rich sensors and task equipment can be automatically and intelligently completed. Various complex tasks. Intelligent UAV combined with VR technology, big data, cloud computing, Internet, and Internet of Things, will become an "airborne intelligent robot" with intelligent vision and deep learning in the future, capable of self-adaptation, self-diagnosis, self-decision, re-planning, and complete From the physical operation of human-machine integration, the whole process of digitization and automation of flight trajectory and operation control and the digitization of the future traffic management process can be realized, which will gain huge application space in the general consumer user market and extend the drone in the working environment. The value of providing intelligent services to human beings.
(5) Accuracy of operational services
The UAV industry not only needs technological innovation, but also actively explores business models to implement precise operational services based on the actual needs of the industry application market and the specific requirements of users. With the warming of the civil drone market, the industrial services of drone operators have expanded to include flight services, rental services, maintenance services, training services, financial insurance services and big data services. The drone flight service includes professional application services in specific application fields. Now there are professional drone aerial photography companies and drone plant protection companies in China. Customers do not need to purchase professional models and training flying hands, and purchase according to the actual needs of the work. Human-machine service to complete the target task. Industrial-grade drones are expensive, and if the tasks are used infrequently, they can be solved by renting high-quality, large-scale, full-series professional-grade drone products. Along with the fiery and consumer-grade market in the consumer market, drone R&D operation training, maintenance services and financial insurance services also have a large market space. As the data port in the air, the drone collects, transmits and stores data, extracts, analyzes and displays data for different industries, providing users with more accurate and powerful data stream services.
(6) Standardization of safety supervision
When the drone is flying, it may pose a safety hazard to other flying objects and ground personnel. It may bring serious security problems such as espionage, traffic accidents, flying into the government restricted area, sneak shots, smuggling drugs, and occupying routes. This has caused the government. The department and the community have a strong concern. Although China's UAV system has formed a certain scale and has certain technical reserves and manufacturing capabilities, the flight operations, airworthiness management and safety management of civil UAVs have not yet established a relatively complete standard specification and regulation system. There are no institutional arrangements for R&D, manufacturing, sales, use, and circulation. As a result, various illegal flight phenomena have followed, and the overall industry development is not standardized. Relevant departments of the government of our country should establish a unified and efficient multi-department linkage and coordination supervision mechanism, coordinate the formulation of the top-level plan for the development of the UAV industry, and clarify the legal attributes of civil UAVs, formulate the production standards and airworthiness standards for UAVs, and strengthen Civilian drone pilot management training, implementation of unified real-time registration system for civil drones and registration system for sales circulation, clear and unified declaration and use procedures for civil drones, construction of drone supervision information cloud platform, specification The industry market access and exit system and other measures, from the R & D, manufacturing, sales, operations and other aspects of the system to carry out all-round management and the whole process of supervision, clear the administrative responsibility, criminal responsibility of the drone violations, unified supervision, unified accountability, Preventing the out-of-control of drones from affecting public safety and flight safety, ensuring the rational, legal and compliant use of drones will enable our national drone industry to achieve sustained, safe and innovative development.
The so-called drone, that is, the aircraft that does not carry people. According to the technology, unmanned aerial vehicles can be divided into six categories: unmanned fixed wing, unmanned helicopter, unmanned multi-rotor aircraft, unmanned airship, unmanned parachute wing, flapping wing micro drone, etc. The three types of applications are the most widely used. Among them, the unmanned multi-rotor aircraft is characterized by its simple structure and relatively low price. The application scene is rapidly expanding and the development prospect is the most concerned.
The multi-rotor small drone has undergone a long history of development. Although the multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicle has a simple mechanical structure and relatively low cost, it is not stable and difficult to control during flight, and it is easy to crash due to rollover. Therefore, an automatic controller and a navigation system are needed to control the flight attitude. However, in the past, because the navigation system was bulky and weighed several tens of kilograms, it was difficult to apply it on small aircraft. Therefore, for a long time, the multi-rotor drone has not achieved great development. Until the 1990s, thanks to the development of MEMS technology, navigation systems weighing only a few grams were developed. With the gradually mature control algorithm, the research and use of multi-rotor UAVs has become a hot spot.
From 2006 to 2010, domestic small domestic drone companies have sprung up. In 2010, Parrot of France released the world's first truly popular quad-rotor U.S. AR.Drone, which not only controls simple, hovering, but also captures images taken with the camera via WiFi. Transfer to your phone. The AR.Drone is light and flexible, easy to operate, and ultimately successful. Under the leadership of AR.Drone, a boom in the commercialization of multi-rotors has been launched worldwide, and multi-rotor aircraft have entered a period of rapid development. At present, China's DJI (Dajiang Innovation), the United States' 3DRoboTIcs, and France's Parrot have become the leading companies in this market.
Small drone market has unlimited business opportunities, and foreign giants have laid outFrom the point of view of the application field of small drones, the entertainment functions mainly from enthusiasts and enthusiasts have been developed in the fields of aerial photography, search and rescue, and even logistics, and the market space has been greatly expanded.
The entertainment function mainly focuses on the flight stability of the drone, and the technical difficulty is not great. Although the current market size is still small, it is the “front-runner†of drone application, which has contributed to the initial development of the entire industry.
The aerial photography function requires the stability, endurance and loading capacity of the drone, and has been widely recognized. For example, the overshoot in the show "Where is Dad?" is mostly done by the Dhanan Phantom drone. This drone only costs 10,000 yuan. Hollywood originally used helicopters to shoot movies, and the rent is as high as 20,000 US dollars per hour. After the use of the UAV in DJI, the cost was greatly reduced, and even a special aerial photography industry was created.
The search function requires the drone to recognize the target and send back feedback. The disaster prevention requires the drone to process the ground data. The technical requirements are relatively high, but the market potential is not small. For example, Shanxi Province has used drones to establish A disaster warning system.
The logistics function requires the UAV to fly safely and stably, accurately identify the target, and can cope with various emergencies on the way, with the highest technical requirements, and still has great difficulty. But once realized, logistics efficiency will be greatly improved, such as Amazon PrimeAir service using small unmanned aircraft drone, delivery speed can reach 50 mph. This part of the market is very large, but subject to safety and cost factors, there are still few applications.
Both hardware and software have the advantages, and the domestic drone industry has become a world-class leader.Although international giants have laid out the drone industry, in this fast-growing market, domestic companies have occupied an absolute dominant position in both technology and sales. The domestic small-scale UAV enterprises represented by Dajiang Innovation are developing at a rapid pace, and the scale far exceeds that of foreign companies.
DJI, the largest small-sized UAV enterprise in China, is not well-known in China. However, in the eyes of Silicon Valley technology elites and venture capitalists, DJI is often used to compare with Apple, which is known as “Apple in the field of dronesâ€. From the establishment of the company in 2006, by 2014, Dajiang has occupied 70% of the global civil small drone market! It is estimated that Dajiang's sales in 2014 exceeded RMB 3 billion, which has become the market leader. In 2008, the first control flight system XP3.1, the first generation of multi-rotor products in 2011, and the launch of Phantom products in 2013 were the strong support for its amazing development speed.
Hardware cost advantage + technology first-mover advantage, creating a global leading position for domestic drone companies
In the case that the domestic electronics manufacturing industry generally lags behind the developed countries, why can domestic drone companies rise rapidly and dominate the global market? Based on the exchanges with experts in the industry, we believe that the cost advantage of hardware and the first-mover advantage of technology are the key to the success of domestic drone companies.
In terms of hardware, the actual barriers of drones are not high, mainly the assembly and aerodynamic design of some precision parts. With the help of the domestic electronic component supply chain, domestic UAV companies can produce and sell products at a lower cost. For example, most of the original drones are used by some enthusiasts and professional aerial photography agencies. The price of a single unit is often as high as tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of yuan. And DJI Innovation can compress this price to less than 10,000 RMB in the case of similar performance, which is extremely cost-effective.
The first-mover advantage in software and technology is the key to the success of domestic drone companies. The real barriers to multi-rotor drones are three places: flight control, pan/tilt technology (ie, mounting equipment stabilization technology), and image transmission technology. Domestic enterprises such as Dajiang, zero-degree intelligence control, etc. are mostly originated from universities and military institutions, and have more reserves in technology. In addition, the software and algorithms related to the development of domestic enterprises are relatively early, so they occupy the first-mover advantage, which makes the domestic enterprises “step ahead†and “step by step†when the industry rises, and also leads foreign companies in technology.
The cost and price have advantages, and the technology is ahead of foreign countries. The success of domestic drone companies is unexpected, but it is also reasonable.
The drone with camera function can be said to be a "flying camera". It has expanded our horizons to the sky as never before, and has taken stunning aerial photos and cool videos anytime and anywhere, attracting the attention of countless consumers. This reminds us of GoPro's wearable camera that shoots cool photos with a special perspective. So understanding the success of GoPro may allow us to grasp the future direction of aerial drones.
GoPro is a professional small, portable, fixed, waterproof and shockproof camera manufacturer. Users can take GoPro products anywhere and mount them on helmets, skateboards, bicycle handles, and even dog shoulder straps to capture first-person perspective (POV) movements. Rather than a more traditional perspective. On June 26, 2014, GoPro was listed on NASDAQ (stock code GPRO).
In the social age, people used GoPro cameras to record moments that they thought were great. Make GoPro popular among young people. GoPro's revenue is growing rapidly. In 2013, GoPro sold 3.85 million cameras and achieved revenues of $985 million. Revenues for the first three quarters of 2014 reached $760 million. According to IDC, the market size of the POV camera will grow rapidly in the next few years, reaching $4.63 billion in 2018, double the current level. Since its listing in June 14, GoPro's share price has soared from the initial $30 to nearly $90. At present, the market value of GoPro is still as high as 6.26 billion US dollars, and the stock price is close to 50 US dollars.
GoPro's camera looks like a small square box with a fixed wide-angle lens on the front and a sealed body in a waterproof case. Originally used by extreme sports groups such as surfing, skiing, extreme cycling and skydiving, "GoPro" has become synonymous with "extreme sports-only cameras."
Application areas can be expanded: "not only drones", can be transformed into new mediaUAV is the leader in the field of aerial photography of drones. Dajiang is like a "GoPro flying in the sky." Similar to GoPro, Dajiang also built its own user video website, and launched the “DJI Dajiang Innovation†channel on Youku. There are currently 845 videos and the number of video plays reaches 4.08 million. Dajiang is attracting more consumers through new media.
With the continuous development of drones, the future online video social network will become the development direction of aerial drones.
Industry pattern: industry takes off, new forces cannot be ignoredFrom the development experience of the POV camera industry, as more competitors enter the new blue ocean of drone aerial photography, following the “GoProâ€, which has a monopoly market, there is a chance to fly ION. A large number of companies such as Panasonic, flying Sony, etc. From the perspective of industry chain research, the domestic intelligent control of drone manufacturers in cooperation with Leibai Technology may stand out.
Although Zero-Intelligence currently has a big gap with Dajiang in terms of market share, since its establishment in 2007, Zero-Intelligence has maintained close cooperation with government departments, military units, research institutes and top universities at home and abroad for eight years. The development of drones has made it technically strong. At the beginning of 2015, the company and the wireless peripheral giant Leibo Technology set up a joint company to enter the mass drone market. The strong technology precipitation and cross-field strong alliance, in the upcoming drone market, zero intelligence control, strong, There is much to be done.
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